The Rate of Change

My ethereal thoughts this month about how to manage change and think about problem solving lead me to the notion that I read recently in a book:

The rate of change in the world today is not increasing at a linear rate, it is increasing at an exponential rate.

And, just as importantly, the rate of change for the last couple of thousand years has been at an exponential rate, we just don't think about it as much. What this means for all of us however is an increasing demand for us to adapt.

Let me explain a bit. If we look at history for the years 1000 to 1500 A.D. for instance, we see some changes that were important, like sailing ships and printing and many other things that changed people lives. But, compare that amount of change to the years 1500 to 2000 A.D. It is not even close about how much people's lives changed and how people had to adapt.

If you just look at the amount of change from the years 1800 to 1900, then compare that to the amount of change from 1900 to 2000; it is astonishing how much faster change is occurring in today's world. Twelve years ago we could not have predicted how much the internet, as one factor of change, would change our lives.

What exponential change means is that something that would have taken 9 years to change in the past will now take 3 years to change, for example. It is predicted that the knowledge of all the people in the world will double in the next 14 years! Another way to look at the rate of the change is that in the next 20 years we will make the same amount of progress as we did in the 20th Century. Just look at some of the changes that are in our future:

• DNA and genetic medicine: the ability to treat us medically as individuals vs. generic medicine. This is particularly true for diseases like cancer, muscular dystrophy and blood related diseases. Work is being done today in medical labs to take the genetics of people and match the DNA to medicines and treatments that will have far better efficacies for individuals.
• Live streaming video and images as fast as sound. The Internet II is already built and in use by labs and universities. The amount of data that can connect between computers is about to increase exponentially. In the near future, you will be able to transmit images and movies as fast as you do voice and data today. You will not only hear people on the phone, you will see them.
• Information - any where, any place. With satellite and wireless technologies, you will be able to be anywhere in the world and communicate with anyone at anytime.

What is even more compelling is the ability of computers to think. Artificial intelligence combined with computing capabilities will allow computers to become more and more like humans at an astonishing rate. It is predicted by some notable, reliable scientists that the computer will be able to match the human brain in thinking abilities by approximately the year 2022. Which is not very far off! That is a "tipping point" at which we will be able to utilize computing power far more dramatically than anything we can comprehend today. Think about the adaptation that will be required by us to live in that world!

So, what that means for me as I think through planning for myself and our business and other things is that it is becoming far more difficult to predict the future. We are very used to thinking linearly, thinking exponential change is not very easy for any of us. And, things we would like to predict with accuracy, we cannot.

So, next time you are in a business planning meeting, think about this rate of change. Next time you may be planning space or tools for people at work, think about the changes that are forthcoming for workers, particularly technology tools. The way we work, live and play is about to change more dramatically than we can predict. The most important thing for all of us is to be cognizant of these facts, to be aware of the rate of changes about to take place in our future. This is the first step for improving the way we look at the future and improving our ability to adapt.

posted by Scott Messmore @ Wednesday, October 17, 2007   0 comments